Amanze Chinonye
Global oil prices rose on Monday as OPEC+ reaffirmed its decision to keep production unchanged in the first quarter of 2026, while renewed geopolitical tensions including U.S. airspace restrictions on Venezuela and fresh attacks on vessels and oil infrastructure in the Black Sea heightened supply concerns.
International benchmark Brent crude traded at $63.38 per barrel at 10 a.m. local time (0700 GMT), up from the previous close of $63.24. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $59.59, compared to $59.50 in the prior session.
Later in the day, prices continued their upward trend, with Brent reaching $62.83 and WTI $58.96 by 1423 GMT.
Join our WhatsApp ChannelThe price rally followed an online ministerial meeting on Sunday in which eight OPEC+ producers – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman reaffirmed their November 2 decision to pause all planned production increases for January, February and March 2026.
The coalition also reiterated that the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary cut introduced in April 2023, as well as the 2.2 million barrels per day additional voluntary adjustment announced in November 2023, may be fully or partially reversed depending on market developments. OPEC+ said it would retain “full flexibility” as it continues to monitor global conditions. The group’s next meeting is scheduled for January 4, 2026.
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Market analysts said the confirmation of the output pause has helped steady expectations after months of concern about a potential supply glut. LSEG senior analyst Anh Pham noted that OPEC+’s decision provided relief following four straight monthly declines in crude futures their longest losing streak since 2023.
Supply worries were further amplified after a drone attack damaged one of the three mooring points at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Novorossiysk export terminal, which handles around 1% of global oil supply. Ukraine also stepped up its Black Sea operations, striking two sanctioned tankers “KAIROS” and “VIRAT” as they headed to the Russian port to lift crude for export.
Although Chevron, a key CPC shareholder, later said loadings were continuing through alternative mooring points, analysts noted that the attacks have revived a risk premium around Russian export infrastructure. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova condemned the strikes as “acts of terrorism” aimed at undermining peace efforts in Ukraine.
Tensions also intensified in Latin America after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Venezuela’s airspace and surrounding zones should be treated as completely closed. “All airlines, pilots, drug dealers and human traffickers, please note that Venezuela and the surrounding airspace will be completely shut down,” Trump said, a declaration that injected additional uncertainty into the oil market given Venezuela’s role as a major producer.
Trump had earlier issued an executive order directing expanded military action against Latin American drug cartels, a move that Caracas has sharply criticised. The U.S. president later said he had spoken with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, though he offered no details of the conversation.
Analysts warn that the convergence of OPEC+ supply restraint and rising conflict pressures across Venezuela and the Black Sea is likely to sustain volatility in the oil market.
While the latest gains have eased concerns about oversupply, prices remain sensitive to shifts in global demand and any diplomatic developments that could ease the current risk premium. Traders now look to upcoming inventory data and further signals from OPEC+ to determine whether the upward momentum will hold.
Amanze Chinonye is a Staff Correspondent at Prime Business Africa, a rising star in the literary world, weaving captivating stories that transport readers to the vibrant landscapes of Nigeria and the rest of Africa. With a unique voice that blends with the newspaper's tradition and style, Chinonye's writing is a masterful exploration of the human condition, delving into themes of identity, culture, and social justice. Through her words, Chinonye paints vivid portraits of everyday African life, from the bustling markets of Nigeria's Lagos to the quiet villages of South Africa's countryside . With a keen eye for detail and a deep understanding of the complexities of Nigerian society, Chinonye's writing is both a testament to the country's rich cultural heritage and a powerful call to action for a brighter future. As a writer, Chinonye is a true storyteller, using her dexterity to educate, inspire, and uplift readers around the world.
