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Global Trade Update: Trump’s Tariff Pause And Its Impact

April 14, 2025
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The US tariff saga has taken a dramatic turn as President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on most of his recently imposed “reciprocal” tariffs, easing trade tensions with over 75 countries. However, China was excluded from this pause, facing a significant escalation in tariffs instead.

Key Developments

•⁠ ⁠Tariff Pause: The baseline 10% tariff on all imports remains in place, but higher country-specific duties ranging up to 50% were suspended to allow for trade negotiations.
•⁠ ⁠Market Reaction: The decision sparked a brief market rally, with the Dow surging nearly 8% and the Nasdaq jumping 12% on Wednesday.
•⁠ ⁠China’s Response: China raised its tariffs on US goods to 84% from 34%, intensifying the US-China trade war, after Trump hiked tariffs on Chinese imports to 145% from 104%.
•⁠ ⁠Global Impact: The European Union paused its retaliation to match Trump’s 90-day window, while other nations like Japan and South Korea expressed cautious relief but urged swift negotiations.

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US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The US CPI print for March 2025 revealed an unexpected cooling in inflation, with a month-over-month decline of 0.1%, driven primarily by a sharp 2.4% decline in energy prices. Key highlights include:
•⁠ ⁠Headline Inflation: Eased to 2.4% from 2.8% in February, edging closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
•⁠ ⁠Core CPI: Rose just 0.1% month-over-month, bringing the annual core inflation rate to 2.9%, the lowest since March 2021.

Nigerian Economy

Nigeria’s private sector displayed robust confidence in March 2025, with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbing to 52.3, up from 51.4 in February. Key sectors driving this growth include:
•⁠ ⁠Agriculture: Led with a strong 54.7, fueled by agribusiness resilience.
•⁠ ⁠Industry and Services: Recorded 51.5, indicating steady progress in manufacturing and service activities.

Financial Markets

•⁠ ⁠Money Market: System liquidity opened with a surplus of ₦303.04 billion, with the Open Buy Back (OBB) and Overnight (OVN) rates closing at 26.58% and 26.96%, respectively.
•⁠ ⁠FGN Treasury Bills: The average benchmark yield increased by 54bps to close at 20.53%.
•⁠ ⁠Equities Market: The NGX All-Share Index declined by 21bps to close at 104,563.34, with market capitalisation decreasing to ₦65.71 trillion.

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