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How Civilian Discontent Is Fueling Africa’s Military Coups

January 30, 2026
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The Association of Foreign Relations Professionals of Nigeria (AFRPN) has called on African governments to address the underlying causes of military coups.

Speaking at a press conference in Abuja ahead of the association’s 8th Annual Lecture and Conference, AFRPN President Ambassador Gani Lawal said: “When citizens are satisfied with their democratically elected governments, coups are less likely to occur. Where dissatisfaction exists, populations may tacitly support military interventions.”

Highlighting recent coups across parts of Africa and the Sahel, Ambassador Lawal said: “Terrorist attacks, corruption, economic hardship and perceived government ineffectiveness fuel the popularity of coups.” He also cited the 2016 attempted coup in Turkey, where civilians took to the streets to confront rebel soldiers, helping loyalist forces restore order.

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The AFRPN’s warning comes against the backdrop of recent security concerns in Nigeria. In October 2025, authorities detained 16 military officers over an alleged plot to destabilise President Bola Tinubu’s administration. A Defence Headquarters investigation confirmed that some of the officers faced allegations of planning to overthrow the government and are due to be arraigned before military judicial panels.

AFRPN, which brings together serving and retired diplomats, scholars and researchers, emphasised that strong democratic governance at home is crucial for effective foreign policy.

Ambassador Lawal said: “Foreign policy is an extension of internal policy. Weak domestic governance undermines a nation’s ability to protect its interests abroad and increases vulnerability to political instability.”

The association urged Nigeria and other African states to invest in civic education, strengthen institutions, and promote regional cooperation through the African Union to reduce the appeal of coups. “A well-informed, empowered population is the first line of defence against undemocratic change,” Ambassador Lawal said.

The AFRPN lecture, scheduled for 5 February 2026 at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Rotunda Hall, will explore the theme: “The Challenge of Democratic Governance in Africa: Mega Trends and Leveraging Opportunities for Consolidation.”

The event will provide a platform for experienced practitioners to share insights on governance, peace, and security across the continent.

DHQ Names 16 Officers to Face Court Martial Over Alleged Coup Plot Against Tinubu

Nigeria Army Officers to Face Coup Charges

Foiled Coup: Ex-Defence Minister Jailed

The guest lecturer is African Union Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security, Ambassador Bankole Adeoye, a former Nigerian ambassador to Ethiopia. The chairman of the event is Professor Ibrahim Agboola Gambari, former Minister of Foreign Affairs and former Chief of Staff to late President Muhammadu Buhari.

Senior government officials, heads of diplomatic missions, security chiefs and foreign policy experts are expected to attend, with discussions aimed at finding practical solutions to consolidate democracy and strengthen regional stability in Africa.

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Prosper Okoye is a Correspondent and Research Writer at Prime Business Africa, a Nigerian journalist with experience in development reporting, public affairs, and policy-focused storytelling across Africa

Prosper Okoye

Prosper Okoye is a Correspondent and Research Writer at Prime Business Africa, a Nigerian journalist with experience in development reporting, public affairs, and policy-focused storytelling across Africa

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