Amanze Chinonye
As 2025 draws to a close, new United Nations population projections point to a defining global shift: Nigeria is projected to record more births this year than the entire continent of Europe combined, underscoring how demographic forces are steadily redrawing the world’s economic and geopolitical map.
According to estimates from the UN World Population Prospects 2024, compiled and visualised by Visual Capitalist and Our World in Data, the world is expected to record about 132.3 million births in 2025, with the overwhelming majority occurring in Asia and Africa.
The figures are projections, as final national birth data are typically compiled after year-end.
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The data show that Nigeria is projected to record about 7.64 million births in 2025, exceeding Europe’s combined total of roughly 6.3 million births across more than 40 countries.
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The scale of the comparison is stark. Nigeria alone is expected to record more births than Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, the Netherlands and Romania combined, highlighting the widening demographic gap between Africa’s most populous nation and aging European societies.
Globally, Nigeria ranks third, behind India, with an estimated 23.1 million births, and China, at about 8.7 million births.
Asia Remains the Birth Centre of the World
Asia continues to dominate global birth figures, driven by large populations and relatively young age structures.
- India leads by a wide margin, accounting for nearly one in every six births worldwide in 2025.
- China, despite decades of declining fertility, remains second globally in absolute birth numbers.
- Other major Asian contributors include Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia, reinforcing the continent’s demographic weight.
Africa stands out as the fastest-growing region by births, reflecting both higher fertility rates and strong population momentum.
Beyond Nigeria, several African countries rank among the world’s top contributors:
- Democratic Republic of Congo: about 4.56 million births
- Ethiopia: about 4.18 million
- Egypt: about 2.45 million
- Tanzania: about 2.42 million
Notably, the DRC alone is projected to record more births than the United States, which is expected to see about 3.66 million births in 2025.
In total, Africa has eight countries among the world’s top 30 by number of births, underscoring the continent’s growing share of global population growth.
In contrast, Europe and parts of East Asia continue to grapple with aging populations and persistently low fertility rates.
Major European economies such as Germany, the UK, France and Italy are each projected to record fewer than 750,000 births annually, contributing to labour shortages and mounting pressure on pension and healthcare systems.
East Asia’s decline is even more pronounced. Japan, once a demographic powerhouse, is expected to record fewer than 750,000 births in 2025, while South Korea’s projected 245,000 births underline what demographers describe as one of the world’s deepest fertility crises.
What data says
Experts caution that demographics are not destiny, but they remain a powerful long-term force.
Population trends influence:
- Labour force size
- Consumer markets
- Military capacity
- Geopolitical influence
Europe’s challenge is sustaining productivity and welfare systems with shrinking and aging populations. Nigeria and much of Africa face the opposite problem, a rapidly expanding youth population without sufficient jobs, infrastructure and social services to absorb it.
Analysts note that whether Africa’s population boom becomes a demographic dividend or a source of instability will depend on governance, education, healthcare investment and economic reform.
A Year-End Reality Check
As 2025 ends, the UN data offer a clear message: the population centre of gravity is shifting decisively toward Africa and parts of Asia. While boardrooms and capitals shape policy, the long-term balance of global power is increasingly influenced by demographic trends unfolding in cities such as Lagos, Kinshasa and Delhi.
The world’s future workforce and consumer base is being born there.
Amanze Chinonye is a Staff Correspondent at Prime Business Africa, a rising star in the literary world, weaving captivating stories that transport readers to the vibrant landscapes of Nigeria and the rest of Africa. With a unique voice that blends with the newspaper's tradition and style, Chinonye's writing is a masterful exploration of the human condition, delving into themes of identity, culture, and social justice. Through her words, Chinonye paints vivid portraits of everyday African life, from the bustling markets of Nigeria's Lagos to the quiet villages of South Africa's countryside . With a keen eye for detail and a deep understanding of the complexities of Nigerian society, Chinonye's writing is both a testament to the country's rich cultural heritage and a powerful call to action for a brighter future. As a writer, Chinonye is a true storyteller, using her dexterity to educate, inspire, and uplift readers around the world.
