Emmanuel OchayiJohnson Chukwu, the Group Managing Director, warned of a potential worst-case scenario where the naira could plummet to N1,500 against the dollar this year.
Chukwu during the Cowry Asset Management’s economic review emphasized the need for a robust forex inflow.
“The worst-case scenario is that the naira could worsen to N1,500 against the dollar,” he stated.
Despite this, he offered a glimmer of hope, projecting a best-case scenario with an exchange rate of N800 per dollar and a moderate case at 1,000/$.
Chukwu’s skepticism extended to President Bola Tinubu’s ambitious $1tn economy projection by 2030, casting doubts on its feasibility amid proposed banking recapitalization.
“The challenge with the proposed recapitalization is that the Nigerian economy is very unlikely to become a $1tn economy by 2030,” Chukwu remarked.
On a positive note, he anticipated the construction sector to be a growth driver, attributing it to increased federal allocations due to naira devaluation.
Chukwu urged strategic fiscal reforms, emphasizing transparency in implementation and efficient taxation to foster economic growth.
Highlighting the exodus of multinational firms in 2023, Chukwu emphasized the need to address challenges hindering profit repatriation and announced that Dangote and Port Harcourt refineries could be pivotal for Nigeria’s petroleum sector.
In a nuanced outlook for 2024, Chukwu concluded, “We maintain a cautious outlook for 2024, anticipating a marginally higher real GDP growth, with expectations of improved performance in key sectors.”
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