Emmanuel OchayiThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2024, downgrading it to 3.0% from the previously predicted 3.1%.
In its ‘World Economic Outlook Update, January 2024,’ released on Tuesday, the IMF cited weaker oil and gas production as a key factor contributing to the slower growth.
According to the IMF’s October update, the decline in Nigeria’s growth is attributed to maintenance work affecting oil and gas production, resulting in a downward revision for 2023. The third-quarter GDP growth of 2.54% in 2023, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics, further underlines the challenges facing the Nigerian economy.
Despite the IMF’s caution, the Central Bank of Nigeria governor, Olayemi Cardoso, expressed optimism, anticipating a real GDP growth of 3.76% in 2024, slightly exceeding the estimated 3.75% for 2023. This contrasts with the IMF’s more conservative projection and raises questions about the government’s economic strategy.
Looking at the broader African context, the IMF foresees sub-Saharan Africa’s economy growing by 3.8% in 2024.
However, the downward revision of 0.2 percentage points for South Africa’s projection highlights logistical constraints impacting economic activity in the region.
Globally, the IMF projects overall economic growth at 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025. This forecast, while higher than the October 2023 projection, is below the historical average.
The IMF attributes this to central bank policy rates, fiscal support withdrawal, and low productivity growth, emphasizing the need for careful economic management in the face of evolving global challenges.
In the midst of these economic dynamics, the IMF’s recognition of resilience in the United States and certain emerging markets underscores the importance of strategic policy decisions in navigating the complex landscape of global economic recovery.
