Victor EzejaAs Nigeria strives to reach a $1 trillion economy by 2030, Chief Economist and Partner at SPM Professionals, Dr. Paul Alaje, has stated that the country needs a consistent 17 percent annual growth rate for seven to eight years to achieve this goal.
Alaje stated this while reacting to the recent upward review of Nigeria’s economic growth projections for 2025 and 2026 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Join our WhatsApp ChannelIMF revised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth for 2025 to 3.4 per cent, up from the 3.0 per cent forecast made in April.
According to the Fund’s July World Economic Outlook Update released on Tuesday, 29 July, growth is expected to slow slightly to 3.2 per cent in 2026, which also reflects a 0.5 percentage point increase from the earlier estimate of 2.7 per cent.
Key drivers of the growth projection include increased oil output and a strong performance in the services sector, as well as economic reforms such as the removal of fuel subsidies, foreign exchange market reforms, and improved fiscal policies that have bolstered investor confidence.
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At the regional level, the IMF projected growth at 4.0 per cent for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2025 and 4.3 per cent in 2026, slightly higher than previous forecasts. The Fund also adjusted the global GDP growth rate to 3.0 per cent in 2025 and 3.1 per cent in 2026, citing stronger-than-expected economic activity in major economies.
IMF emphasised the need for further regional trade integration, infrastructure investment, and reforms in state-owned enterprises (especially in energy and transportation).
The institution also called for efficient fiscal and monetary policies such as equitable tax reforms, progressive income taxation, and maintaining central bank independence.
It also warned that high public debt, global uncertainties, and potential oil price declines remain downside risks, and stressed the need for caution.
Speaking in an interview on Arise News TV, Alaje said the economic growth rate may not translate to economic development and significant improvement in the citizens’ standard of living.
“The expectation of Nigeria is that in about eight or nine years time, our GDP will become $1 trillion economy. We need 17 per cent per annum growth rate to get to that target if other things remain equal. And we need to do this consistently for about seven to eight years,” Alaje stated.
Continuing, the economic expert pointed out that “This may not necessarily translate to the quality of life in the short or medium term. It might not also lead to a significant reduction in the prices of goods.”
He stressed that for the people to reap the benefits of economic growth, the government needs to make significant investments in physical infrastructure (roads, rail transport, energy, etc.), healthcare, and education.
“If you invest in physical infrastructure, energy, healthcare, and education, you are going to see sporadic improvement, an increase in people’s engagement with economic activities and a relative reduction in poverty,” he stated, adding that this would reduce poverty and hunger.
The economic expert also called for deliberate efforts to boost production. “When this happens, GDP will not only grow, but the country will also experience development.”
Victor Ezeja is a passionate journalist with seven years of experience writing on economy, politics and energy. He holds a Master's degree in Mass Communication.
