Emmanuel OchayiThe World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report signals a rebound in global trade, aiming for a 2.3% growth in 2024 after a lackluster 2023.
The report cites a return to normal trade patterns and a hopeful outlook, emphasizing the revival of goods trade.
According to the World Bank, global supply chain pressures have normalized, and services trade, while slowing, is expected to align more closely with pre-pandemic patterns.
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“Goods trade contracted last year, reflecting declines in key economies, marking the first sustained contraction outside a global recession in 20 years,” says the report.
Despite the anticipated recovery, global trade responsiveness to output may remain lower than pre-pandemic levels due to subdued investment growth, which is more trade-intensive.
Tourism is set to rebound, with global arrivals expected to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2024, although recovery may lag in some countries.
However, the overall trade growth forecast for 2024 has been revised down by 0.5%, reflecting weaker-than-expected growth in China and global investment.
The report also highlights Nigeria’s economic performance, with total trade reaching N18,804.29bn in Q3 2023. Exports surged by 60.78%, reaching N10,346.60bn, while imports rose by 47.70%, standing at N8,457.68bn. This robust growth outpaces the previous quarters and the corresponding quarter in 2022.
Despite these positive indicators, the World Bank projects a third consecutive year of slowing global growth, dipping to 2.4% in 2024—nearly three-quarters of a percentage point below the 2010s average.
Developing economies are expected to grow at 3.9%, over a percentage point below the previous decade’s average, with low-income countries projected to achieve a 5.5% growth, weaker than earlier expectations.
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