AdminIn the pursuit of strengthening the value of the Nigerian Naira, financial experts have advocated a strategic increase in crude oil production in conjunction with the anticipated impact of the Dangote Refinery.
Johnson Chukwu, Founder of Cowry Asset Management Limited, asserts that while the Dangote Refinery holds the potential to alleviate foreign exchange pressure, its true benefits can only be realized with a parallel boost in crude oil production.
The Crude Oil Production Conundrum
Chukwu highlights the intricate relationship between crude oil production and the expected advantages of the Dangote Refinery. He emphasised that for the refinery’s impact to be significant, there must be a corresponding surge in crude production.
The Dangote and Port Harcourt refineries are projected to decrease the country’s crude export. However, without an increase in crude production, the allocation to local refineries could potentially diminish the revenue derived from crude sales.
“In the first place, bear in mind that the country’s foreign exchange earnings are from crude, and the importation of fuel accounts for 30 percent of our total imports. So, if the refineries come on stream, it will reduce our export of crude. Unless we have an increase in crude production, any allocation to local refineries will reduce the amount we made from crude sales,” Chukwu emphasizes.
Dangote Refinery’s Role in Naira Strengthening
Kingsley Chinda, another analyst, sheds light on the transformative potential of the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Refinery. He anticipates that the refinery, once operational, is poised to meet 100 percent of Nigeria’s demand for refined petroleum products and generate forex earnings by exporting 40 percent of its production.
Chinda emphasised the ripple effects of the refinery’s capability to produce ample petrol, diesel, jet fuel, and kerosene for domestic consumption. By reducing the need for fuel imports, the demand for foreign currencies, particularly the dollar, will decrease. This, in turn, will alleviate pressure on the naira exchange rate.
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Naira Value Enhancement through Dangote Refinery
Chinda contends that Nigeria’s substantial expenditure on fuel imports exerts pressure on the demand for foreign currency, especially the dollar. The Dangote Refinery, by diminishing or eliminating the need for fuel imports, will decrease this demand for dollars, contributing to a stronger naira against the dollar.
“The establishment of the Dangote Refinery will not only contribute to reducing imported inflation and associated costs but also has the potential to attract foreign investments, further bolstering exchange rate stability,” Chinda explains.
Attracting Foreign Investments and Exchange Rate Stability
Chinda envisions the Dangote Refinery as a pivotal factor in attracting foreign direct investments (FDIs), which can significantly impact the country’s foreign exchange reserves and positively influence the exchange rate. Beyond financial stability, foreign investments bring expertise, technology, and best practices, contributing to the refinery’s operations and the overall economy.
The convergence of reduced imported inflation and the allure of foreign investments positions the Dangote Refinery as a catalyst for exchange rate stability and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. As the country navigates economic complexities, the synergy between increased crude production and the transformative potential of the refinery emerges as a crucial strategy for fortifying the Naira’s value on the global stage.
