Victor EzejaAnalysts at CardinalStone Research have predicted that Nigeria’s inflation will record further decline in August 2025, continuing the downward trajectory.
The July 2025 inflation report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Friday showed that headline inflation dropped for the fourth consecutive month, easing to 21.88 per cent from 22.22 per cent in June.
Join our WhatsApp ChannelOn a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate dropped to 1.99 per cent in July 2025, representing a 0.31 per cent increase from the 1.68 per cent recorded in June 2025.
While reacting to the inflation report, the financial research and investment firm said the moderation was largely driven by the core basket, which eased to 21.33 per cent from 22.76 per cent in June. On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate declined by 1.49 per cent to 0.97 per cent in July 2025 from 2.46 per cent in June 2025.
CardinalStone further stated that the moderation of the July 2025 headline inflation was also supported by a decline in energy prices and a relatively stable foreign exchange (FX) environment.
It however, noted that the annual food inflation rate accelerated to 22.74 per cent by 77 basis points from 21.97 per cent in June, adding that this reflects the impact of insecurity in key food-producing regions and adverse weather conditions, which may have caused supply disruption.
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Despite that, the analysts expressed optimism that the inflation will continue to decelerate in August on the back of a sustained drop in energy prices as the Dangote refinery begins its strategic nationwide direct distribution of petroleum products to retail marketers and large-scale end-users.
The Dangote refinery’s direct fuel distribution initiative is expected to remove logistics costs, making the commodities cheaper and also available.
“In August, inflation is expected to remain on its disinflationary path, aided by sustained declines in energy prices as the Dangote refinery maintains its distribution strategy, which removes transportation costs for fuel marketers and large-scale consumers,” the firm stated.
“This support could offset upward pressures from food inflation risks and seasonal FX demand during the summer months—a trend typically seen in the third quarter,” it added.
Victor Ezeja is a passionate journalist with seven years of experience writing on economy, politics and energy. He holds a Master's degree in Mass Communication.
