Prime Business Africa
By Musa Abdullahi
Nigerian politics runs on narratives. The next one is already forming. With Mr. Peter Obi and HE Rabiu Kwankwaso drawing members into the Nigerian Democratic Congress, NDC, the ruling party needs a firebreak. It cannot stop defections with performance, so it will hand the African Democratic Congress, ADC’s remnants a story to cling to.
The script is simple: Obi’s exit weakened the Coalition. If Bola Tinubu wins on January 16, 2027, Obi must take the blame.
The Setup is characteristic. First, keep ADC alive. Assure its executives that the courts will not dismantle the party. That all cases will be dismissed in time enough to have a seamless primary.
Join our WhatsApp ChannelSecond, plant the line through proxies and commentators: unity was intact until Obi left.
Third, watch ADC’s cornered leadership repeat it. A scapegoat is easier than self-examination.
The Shift Has Started. The pivot is already underway. Instead of focusing on Tinubu, the target they claim to oppose, most of ADC now direct their attacks at Obi. The narrative is settling in. APC loyalists hail their leader as a master strategist, consistent with a familiar method: turn the opposition inward, then face little resistance.
Why They Will Bite. Survival comes first. Party officers need ADC to exist to retain relevance. Blaming Obi buys time and bargaining power. Ego comes next. Few will admit they led a platform people abandoned. Then comes airtime. “ADC attacks Obi” travels faster than “Government explains inflation.”
The truth that Obi left ADC when it became clear the struggle was about control, not country will not be part of it. That ADC was targeted to ensure it could not secure consistent victories or sustain its operations once Obi joined will not be mentioned. That it is clearly not a viable path to power will completely be ignored. Tinubu packs his cabinet with a retinue of spin doctors, including those masquerading as ambassadors.
The Goal: The ruling party does not need ADC to win. It needs ADC to distract. Every attack on Obi replaces a question about the cost of living. Every debate about coalition drama displaces scrutiny of the naira.
The bait is there. ADC’s remnants will take it. They will argue that Obi fractured the opposition and should answer for 2027 if Tinubu prevails.
Of course, none is true. But in Abuja, what is useful often outweighs what is true.
Nigerians must decide: listen to a fractured party explaining itself, or to those who left it and why.
Truth, however, is that NDC will give both APC and ADC a run for their money. They new coalition have the people and power belongs to the people.
Musa Abdullahi wrote from Kano.
Prime Business Africa is a business, economy and policy news platform founded in 2021 by veteran journalist and media scholar, Dr Marcel Mbamalu, after he left The Guardian as Editor.
Dr Mbamalu, who serves as Founder and Publisher, set up Prime Business Africa to deliver sharp, data-driven reporting on Nigeria’s markets, trade, investment, and governance trends for decision-makers, entrepreneurs, and policy leaders.
He also writes The Bottom Line, a backpage column for Punch Newspaper every Thursday.
Under his leadership, Prime Business Africa combines deep newsroom experience with a focus on accountability journalism, aiming to bridge information gaps between Africa’s private sector and the global economy.
