Amanze Chinonye
The U.S. military has developed a set of contingency plans for a possible intervention in Nigeria after President Donald Trump directed the Pentagon to “prepare for possible action” aimed at protecting Christians from targeted attacks, according to a detailed report by Prime Business Africa.
U.S. defence officials told the publication that U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) has submitted three escalatory options light, medium and heavy to the Joint Staff.
The planning was accelerated after Trump warned on Saturday via his Truth Social account that Washington would cut all aid to Nigeria if the government “continues to allow the killing of Christians,” adding that the U.S. could “go into that now disgraced country, ‘guns-a-blazing.”
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Three Options Under Review
The light option would centre on “partner-enabled” operations, allowing U.S. military advisers and the State Department to support Nigerian forces in operations against Boko Haram, ISWAP and other militants.
The medium option proposes drone strikes on insurgent camps and mobile targets, though the U.S. would face logistical and diplomatic difficulties because it no longer has drone bases in neighbouring Niger.
The heavy option would involve deploying an aircraft carrier strike group and long-range strike assets to the Gulf of Guinea. But officials underscored that such an operation is not a current national security priority.
Limited Effectiveness Expected
Military planners cited by Prime Business Africa cautioned that a limited strike or small deployment would not decisively degrade Nigeria’s entrenched insurgencies without a broader, long-term campaign comparable to U.S. involvement in Iraq or Afghanistan, an engagement they say is not being seriously contemplated.
Retired Maj. Gen. Paul D. Eaton warned that any strike-focused effort could prove ineffective, saying there is no real appetite among Americans or President Trump beyond his online remarks for a large U.S. ground war in Nigeria. He compared the impact of isolated airstrikes to “pounding a pillow.”
A Complex Security Landscape
Nigeria’s security environment remains multidimensional, involving Boko Haram, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), armed bandit groups, separatist militias like the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), and persistent herder–farmer conflicts driven by economic and social pressures.
Figures from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) show 1,923 attacks on civilians in Nigeria this year, with only 50 incidents directly connected to Christian identity. ACLED notes that while insurgent factions sometimes frame their violence as religiously targeted, the impact is indiscriminate across communities.
Nigeria Reasserts Sovereignty
The Nigerian government has responded to the developments by insisting that any foreign assistance must respect the country’s sovereignty and avoid framing Nigeria’s insecurity as a solely religious crisis.
As of November 6, no directive has been issued to initiate any of the proposed U.S. military plans. The Pentagon remains in an assessment phase, while Trump’s remarks and the ongoing internal reviews continue to heighten diplomatic sensitivities between Washington and Abuja.
Amanze Chinonye is a Staff Correspondent at Prime Business Africa, a rising star in the literary world, weaving captivating stories that transport readers to the vibrant landscapes of Nigeria and the rest of Africa. With a unique voice that blends with the newspaper's tradition and style, Chinonye's writing is a masterful exploration of the human condition, delving into themes of identity, culture, and social justice. Through her words, Chinonye paints vivid portraits of everyday African life, from the bustling markets of Nigeria's Lagos to the quiet villages of South Africa's countryside . With a keen eye for detail and a deep understanding of the complexities of Nigerian society, Chinonye's writing is both a testament to the country's rich cultural heritage and a powerful call to action for a brighter future. As a writer, Chinonye is a true storyteller, using her dexterity to educate, inspire, and uplift readers around the world.
