Etim EtimTwo PDP members from Akwa Ibom State – Onofiok Luke and Ini Ememobong – visited the party’s Acting National Chairman, Umar Damagun, in his office in Abuja on Tuesday and the event grabbed a few headlines in the politics pages of some publications. Damagum told the visitors that that PDP would win the governorship and other elections in the Akwa Ibom State. He said many ‘’credible’’ PDP stalwarts who did not defect with Gov. Umo Eno are still very active in the party.PDP Youth Leader, Muhammed Suleiman and National Publicity Secretary, Debo Ologunagba were also present during the visit. But back in Akwa Ibom, the visit was hardly mentioned beyond the Facebook pages of the Luke and Ememobong. This is because every important PDP member in the state has moved into APC with Gov. Eno. These include all the 31 LGA chairmen and their councilors; 24 of the 26 House of Assembly members and the two senators. In addition, all of the governor’s commissioners and other political appointees, as well as other stalwarts who did not even hold political positions had also defected with the governor. The two gentlemen who visited Damagun on Tuesday are probably the most lonesome politicians in the state.
So, what was the basis of Damagun’s optimism? It’s possible that both Luke and Ememobong might have given him a wrong impression of what happened in Akwa Ibom and what has become of the PDP. I can imagine them telling Damagun: ‘’PDP is still very strong; we are present in every ward…we shall capture the state in 2027, and blah; blah; blah’’. It’s all a hoax. Hyperboles; exuberances and deceptions are important ingredients of Nigerian politics. About two months since the governor left, PDP is virtually dead in the state. There has been no activity in the PDP since Umo Eno left. Its secretariat, hitherto a busy arena, looks desolate and deserted. Worst of all, no visible arrowhead or a person of considerable political clout with adequate financial resources that can galvanize and lead the party has emerged. The party has not called a stakeholders’ meeting to take stock and plot the way forward. There is nobody to take charge! In Akwa Ibom, any political party that does not have at least one formidable financier is no better than the Boys Scout movement.
Join our WhatsApp ChannelI have been involved in all the governorship elections in Akwa Ibom State since 2015. In late 2014, Obong Umana Okon Umana decamped from the PDP to APC to pick up the governorship ticket. Conservative estimates have it that Umana spent around N10 billion from between when he defected till the conclusion of post-election litigations. Obong Nsima Ekere, the APC governorship candidate in the 2019 elections, spent well above that. Mind you, these expenses are not limited to election matters alone. In Akwa Ibom State, the party leader is responsible for the welfare and wellbeing of his supporters. You pay house rents; children’s school fees; food bills and hospital bills of your supporters. In addition, you have to buy cars for, and pay salaries to your key supporters and in addition, provide buses for other party members. As a party leader, you have to go around with police escorts to cut an image of a serious politician. In addition, you have to provide food and assorted drinks in your home at all hours for visitors, hangers-on and stragglers. There is nobody in Akwa Ibom PDP who has the capacity; willingness and courage to incur such expenditures in this season.
Now, let’s look at the statistics. In the 2023 elections, Umo Eno of PDP polled 354, 348 votes; Bassey Albert (YPP) scored 136, 262 and Akanimo Udofia (APC) got 129, 60; John James Akpanudoedehe (NNPP) polled 12, 509 and Uduak Udoh of Labour Party got 4, 746. Umo Eno won in 29 of the 31 LGAs while Bassey Albert won in two. In 2019, Udom Emmanuel (PDP) got 519, 712; Nsima Ekere (APC) 171, 978. All other candidates got less than a thousand votes. While Udom Emmanuel won in 30 LGA; Ekere won in only one LGA. There was no real election in the state in 2015. The results were written in Government House, Uyo under the supervision and direction of the then governor. This is why the governorship election of 2015 was cancelled by the Tribunal and the Court of Appeal.
In 2023, Eno scored 55% of the votes cast and in 2019; Udom Emmanuel got 75% of total votes cast. Given that PDP and YPP have collapsed into APC, making it quite formidable, and considering the overwhelming popularity of the governor, I predict that he will take no less than 80% of the votes in 2027. He would be aided by other tailwinds which could be summarized under the incumbency advantage. They include huge financial resources; redoubtable party henchmen in every nook and cranny of the state; enthusiasm of APC members to produce governor for the first time in history and the high job approval rating of the governor. There’s also the unbreakable zoning arrangement in the state. Akwa Ibom North West, the zone that will produce the next governor in 2031, will more likely vote for the incumbent than choose a new person who will likely stay for fresh eight years. This factor counted against Ekere in 2019.
So, Umar Damagun was essentially daydreaming when he spoke of a possible PDP victory in Akwa Ibom. He was likely misled by his visitors. But I reckon that somebody in the PDP will want to challenge Gov. Eno in 2027. The person will not be looking to winning the election; rather, he would be more interested in the cash that the Party typically sends to governorship candidates from Abuja to support their campaigns. For such opportunistic contestant, a bird in hand is better than three in the bush.
Etim Etim
ETIM ETIM is a journalist, banker and author. He has been a member of the Editorial Board of The Guardian, a Regional Manager in Access Bank and is currently a Columnist in Prime Business Africa, The Cable and Businessday newspapers.
He is also the Chief Executive of Stein Meyer Communications, a major media consultancy and the author of the best-selling book, "Akwa Ibom Heroes: Inside Story of the Fight for Abrogation of Onshore-Offshore Oil Dichotomy" and co-author of another book, "Osinbajo Strides: Defining Moments of an Innovative Leader".
