Amanze Chinonye
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has confirmed that Nigeria is not among Africa’s fastest-growing economies in its latest economic projections, as several smaller nations continue to record stronger growth trajectories across the continent.
According to the IMF’s 2025 Article IV Consultation Report on Nigeria and the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow by 3.4 percent in 2025, below the Sub-Saharan African average of 3.8 percent. The Fund attributed the moderate outlook to persistent structural challenges, high inflation, and continued pressure in the foreign exchange market, despite ongoing macroeconomic reforms.
April 2025 IMF Regional Outlook
In its April 2025 Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF projected that regional growth would moderate to 3.8 percent in 2025, citing global economic headwinds, weak external demand, and fiscal pressures. While the report did not publish a ranked list of the continent’s top performers, it highlighted that some economies particularly Ethiopia, Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, and Uganda were expected to outperform the regional average with growth rates between 6 and 7 percent.
Join our WhatsApp ChannelAt the time, Nigeria’s growth forecast for 2025 was revised down to around 3.0 percent, according to media analyses based on the IMF’s April update a drop from the earlier 3.2 percent projection. The IMF explained that while the country’s reforms, including fuel subsidy removal and foreign exchange unification, were crucial for long-term stability, their short-term impact was dampening growth.
“Nigeria’s economic reforms are steps in the right direction, but their benefits will only materialise with sustained implementation, institutional transparency, and improved fiscal discipline,” the IMF noted in April.
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Latest Projections and Comparative Performance
In the July 2025 Article IV report, the IMF upgraded Nigeria’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.4 percent, supported by higher crude oil output, recovery in non-oil sectors, and increased domestic refining capacity. However, this remains below the growth levels of the region’s leading economies.
Countries projected to lead Africa’s growth in 2025 include:
- Rwanda (7.1%)
- Ethiopia (6.6%)
- Benin Republic (6.5%)
- Côte d’Ivoire (6.3%)
- Uganda (6.1%)
According to regional data compiled from IMF and World Bank analyses, these nations are set to drive Africa’s economic expansion in the coming year.
The IMF observed that Sub-Saharan Africa remains on a slow but steady recovery path, with several smaller economies driving continental growth through industrial diversification, infrastructure investment, and improved governance frameworks.
Nigeria’s Domestic Growth Trend
Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 4.23 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, up from 3.19 percent in the first quarter, driven largely by the services, trade, and agriculture sectors.
However, the IMF cautioned that high inflation, weak purchasing power, and limited fiscal space could continue to constrain broader economic recovery.
In its latest assessment, the IMF commended Nigeria for reforms such as ending central bank financing of fiscal deficits, improving monetary policy transparency, and implementing measures to stabilise the exchange rate. Nevertheless, it warned that further steps are needed to ensure macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth.
“Growth has been steady but too low in per capita terms, and inflation remains high. Gains have yet to benefit all Nigerians,” the IMF said in the July 2025 report.
Analysts note that the IMF’s findings underscore Nigeria’s mixed economic trajectory showing short-term improvements but lagging behind faster-growing African peers.
The country’s medium-term outlook, experts say, will depend on the consistency of reforms, diversification of exports, and structural improvements in governance and infrastructure.
The IMF is expected to release its next Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa in early 2026, providing updated growth projections and a clearer picture of Nigeria’s position relative to the rest of the continent.
Amanze Chinonye is a Staff Correspondent at Prime Business Africa, a rising star in the literary world, weaving captivating stories that transport readers to the vibrant landscapes of Nigeria and the rest of Africa. With a unique voice that blends with the newspaper's tradition and style, Chinonye's writing is a masterful exploration of the human condition, delving into themes of identity, culture, and social justice. Through her words, Chinonye paints vivid portraits of everyday African life, from the bustling markets of Nigeria's Lagos to the quiet villages of South Africa's countryside . With a keen eye for detail and a deep understanding of the complexities of Nigerian society, Chinonye's writing is both a testament to the country's rich cultural heritage and a powerful call to action for a brighter future. As a writer, Chinonye is a true storyteller, using her dexterity to educate, inspire, and uplift readers around the world.
