Emmanuel OchayiThe World Bank’s Global Economic Prospect report predicts a potential escalation of food insecurity across Nigeria and Sub-Saharan Africa due to heightened conflicts in the Middle East.
The report warns that political turmoil and disruptions in global trade could amplify existing challenges, with direct consequences on food prices.
The report states, “An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could exacerbate the situation in Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan African countries in terms of food insecurity. A conflict-induced sustained oil price spike would not only raise food prices but could also disrupt supply chains, leading to less affordable food and an uptick in malnutrition rates in the region.”
Highlighting the interconnected risks, the report identifies the vulnerability of the region to extreme weather events linked to climate change, emphasizing floods and droughts.
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This poses an additional threat to the already strained food inflation situation, especially for subsistence farmers.
Moreover, concerns extend beyond conflicts. The World Bank points out the potential impact of slower-than-expected Chinese growth on countries heavily reliant on China as an export destination for commodities, further complicating the economic outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa.
In October 2023, the Food and Agricultural Organisation had already issued a warning about 26.5 million Nigerians at risk of hunger in 2024. The NBS reports a staggering 32.84% food inflation in Nigeria for November, underlining the severity of the crisis.
The United Nations adds to the grim picture, noting that since the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, around 78% of Africans cannot afford a healthy diet, challenging the region’s ability to meet its food security targets for 2030.
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