OPEC Predicts High Oil Demand In 2024

In its December report, OPEC outlined roles for economic growth in 2024, expecting a surge in global oil demand by 2.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year (y-o-y).

The report, obtained from the OPEC website stressed that sustained economic activities in major consumer nations will drive the need for transportation fuels and distillates.

“Looking ahead to 2024, global oil demand is forecast to rise by a healthy 2.2 mb/d, y-o-y,” stated the report, highlighting the expected contributions from various regions, particularly China, the Middle East, and India, among others.

While the report underlined the forecasted expansion in non-OPEC supply by 1.8 mb/d in 2023, with the US expected to lead, it projected a further 1.4 mb/d increase in 2024 driven by US tight oil output and other global initiatives.

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However, amidst positive economic growth projections for 2023 and 2024, OPEC expressed caution due to lingering uncertainties in the oil market. Countries in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) pledged additional voluntary adjustments in 1Q24 to stabilize global oil markets.

Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais reiterated the need for investments totaling $12.1 trillion to meet rising oil demand in the long term, warning against underinvestment in the oil and gas sector, which could lead to market volatility.

Al Ghais stressed the necessity of focusing on emissions reduction and advocated for investments across all energy sectors.

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“At the Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference in Dubai, Al Ghais emphasized the importance of acknowledging the truth—reducing emissions requires major investments across all energy sectors,” OPEC’s December report noted.